sport-intelligence

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -3.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?−$402Yes · avg 19¢ → 3.7¢ · $98

Price-adjusted edge

-3.5 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.1

Flagged volume

$394.5k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$139.9k

Last 30 days −$16.1k · $4.77M volume · 410 trades · since Jun 22, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$768.1k

Open P&L · 173 positions

−$879.1k

Closed-position win rate

96%

157 closed

Wallet age · markets

124d

338 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	1.1	-3.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-10-22?	LOW BUY Yes @ 56¢	$10.0k	56%	1d ago	excluded
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13?	LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢	$10.0k	80%	40d ago	excluded
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?	LOW BUY Yes @ 50¢	$10.0k	50%	47d ago	excluded
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	LOW BUY No @ 58¢	$20.0k	58%	96d ago	excluded
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢	$20.0k	37%	101d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	MED BUY Argentina @ 78¢	$150.0k 7.5× usual	78%	104d ago	excluded
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	LOW BUY Yes @ 57¢	$20.0k	57%	104d ago	excluded
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Canada @ 66¢	$20.0k	66%	117d ago	excluded
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$15.0k	59%	117d ago	called
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	MED SELL Canada @ 74¢	$34.5k	26%	117d ago	missed
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Canada @ 75¢	$35.0k	75%	117d ago	called
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	LOW BUY Yes @ 48¢	$50.0k 2.5× usual	48%	118d ago	missed

Will Olympiakós SFP win on 2026-10-22?excluded

BUY Yes @ 56¢$10.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 1d ago

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-09-13?excluded

BUY Yes @ 80¢$10.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 40d ago

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-06?excluded

BUY Yes @ 50¢$10.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 47d ago

Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?excluded

BUY No @ 58¢$20.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 96d ago

Will France win on 2026-07-14?excluded

BUY Yes @ 37¢$20.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 101d ago

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Argentina @ 78¢$150.0k

MED sport-intelligence · 104d ago

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?excluded

BUY Yes @ 57¢$20.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 104d ago

South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Canada @ 66¢$20.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 117d ago

Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?called

BUY Yes @ 59¢$15.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 117d ago

South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancemissed

SELL Canada @ 74¢$34.5k

MED sport-intelligence · 117d ago

South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancecalled

BUY Canada @ 75¢$35.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 117d ago

Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?missed

BUY Yes @ 48¢$50.0k

LOW sport-intelligence · 118d ago

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