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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 2.1 wins, so it did -3.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-3.7 pts
Called / graded
2/4
Expected from price
2.1
Flagged volume
$449.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±24.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$329.2k
Last 30 days −$292.8k · $4.75M volume · 1,450 trades · since Oct 24, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$429.8k
Open P&L · 160 positions
−$748.6k
Closed-position win rate
64%
363 closed
Wallet age · markets
365d
501 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 2 | 2.1 | -3.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bulls vs. Bucks | MED BUY Bucks @ 53¢ | $34.0k 2.0× usual |
missed |
 Brisbane Roar FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 55¢ | $10.6k | called |
| Brisbane Roar FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 54¢ | $14.0k | called |
 Patriots vs. Bears | LOW SELL Bears @ 99.9¢ | $67.4k 4.0× usual |
excluded |
| Patriots vs. Bears | LOW BUY Bears @ 60¢ | $40.5k 2.4× usual |
called |
 AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $37.2k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| AFC Bournemouth vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 56¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 Florence: Michele Ribecai vs Max Houkes | LOW SELL Michele Ribecai @ 99.9¢ | $17.7k | excluded |
| Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 227.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 49¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
 Missouri State vs. Delaware: O/U 51.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $25.9k | excluded |
| Missouri State vs. Delaware: O/U 51.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 58¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
 Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $23.1k | excluded |
| Bills vs. Rams | LOW BUY Bills @ 47¢ | $12.3k | excluded |
| Olbia: Lorenzo Carboni vs Mackenzie McDonald | LOW BUY Mackenzie McDonald @ 66¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| Falcons vs. Saints | LOW BUY Saints @ 53¢ | $40.0k 2.4× usual |
missed |
 Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 13¢ | $13.7k | called |
 Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢ | $18.9k | called |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢ | $13.8k | missed |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $19.0k | missed |
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