← Wallets
−$633No · avg 76¢ → 73¢ · $13.9k+$1,460Yes · avg 54¢ → 73¢ · $5,678−$20Yes · avg 77¢ → 76¢ · $1,495−$9No · avg 77¢ → 76¢ · $708+$272Yes · avg 17¢ → 30¢ · $611+$117U 8.5 · avg 64¢ → 95.3¢ · $350−$5No · avg 95.5¢ → 93.8¢ · $268−$9Yes · avg 82¢ → 78¢ · $174
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.7 wins, so it did +5.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +0.7 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.7 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.7
Flagged volume
$790.2k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±15.9 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$12k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes at 69¢) and the edge is +0.7 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 18% · n=1
20–40¢
0% vs 24% · n=1
60–80¢
100% vs 70% · n=2
80–100¢
100% vs 92% · n=2
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$494
Last 30 days −$23.3k · $36.40M volume · 33,045 trades · since Jan 13, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$2.07M
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$1.23M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
285d
4311 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 4 | 3.7 | +5.7 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY 76ers @ 42¢ | $20.7k | excluded |
 San Jose State vs. Hawai'i | LOW BUY San Jose State @ 81¢ | $91.1k 4.2× usual |
excluded |
 Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 81¢ | $46.6k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
 Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees | LOW BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 93¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | LOW BUY Giants @ 99¢ | $113.5k 5.3× usual |
excluded |
 Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Men's US Open? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $68.9k 3.2× usual |
excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | LOW BUY Washington Nationals @ 99¢ | $48.6k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| 49ers vs. Chargers | LOW BUY 49ers @ 99¢ | $11.3k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
 Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 86¢ | $13.8k | excluded |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 18¢ | $10.9k | missed |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $55.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 80¢ | $25.6k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢ | $18.3k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $17.8k | called |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $22.6k | missed |
 Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 87¢ | $21.1k | called |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 24¢ | $12.2k | missed |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | MED BUY No @ 71¢ | $42.3k | called |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | LOW BUY Spurs @ 99.2¢ | $19.8k | excluded |
 Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | LOW BUY No @ 96¢ | $19.0k | called |
| Spread: Spurs (-11.5) | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 60¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 69¢ | $30.4k | called |
| Magic vs. Hawks | LOW BUY Hawks @ 99¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
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