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Snow-White

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.6 wins, so it did -53.7 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Open bets: who else is there

Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.

None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.

Price-adjusted edge
-53.7 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
2.6
Flagged volume
$735.7k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$529
Last 30 days −$4,427 · $11.37M volume · 11,394 trades · since Oct 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$440.8k
Open P&L · 250 positions
−$52.7k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
364d
887 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other312.6-53.7 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $53.3k100% 21h agopending
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢ $19.9k100% 143d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ $73.6k
2.5× usual
0% 178d agoexcluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?LOW BUY No @ 83¢ $10.3k83% 205d agomissed
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?LOW BUY No @ 92¢ $19.6k92% 205d agomissed
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ $36.0k0% 234d agoexcluded
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $20.0k100% 234d agoexcluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $111.0k
3.8× usual
100% 234d agoexcluded
Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?LOW BUY No @ 97.5¢ $10.1k97% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 96.2¢ $16.0k96% 256d agoexcluded
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.2¢ $33.5k97% 257d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢ $135.5k
4.6× usual
0% 262d agoexcluded
US government shutdown Saturday?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ $12.3k100% 263d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.6¢ $16.1k98% 279d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢ $34.7k97% 279d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $29.3k2% 280d agoexcluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?LOW BUY No @ 97¢ $29.1k97% 284d agoexcluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?LOW BUY No @ 86¢ $29.2k86% 285d agocalled
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ $46.0k1% 302d agoexcluded

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