Hashbrown

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 7 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 6.4 wins, so it did +6.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +4.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?+$990Yes · avg 65¢ → 90.2¢ · $3,609 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?+$88Yes · avg 66¢ → 76¢ · $642 Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$27Yes · avg 87¢ → 91.5¢ · $514 Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?−$59Yes · avg 81¢ → 72¢ · $507 Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?−$3Yes · avg 75¢ → 74¢ · $155 Will New Zealand A win?+$31Yes · avg 48¢ → 64¢ · $121 Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$2Yes · avg 65¢ → 68¢ · $68 · 1 proven with, 0 against Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?−$3Yes · avg 71¢ → 65¢ · $32

Price-adjusted edge

+6.9 pts

Called / graded

7/8

Expected from price

6.4

Flagged volume

$2.01M

Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.2 pts std. error.

Graded P&L at their stakes

+$3k

8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 7 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.

Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.

Without their best bet

Leave out the single bet that helped most (No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? at 79¢) and the edge is +4.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.

Calibration: won vs price paid

0–20¢

0% vs 11% · n=1

60–80¢

100% vs 79% · n=1

80–100¢

100% vs 93% · n=6

Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$149.4k

Last 30 days +$5,378 · $15.66M volume · 7,448 trades · since Dec 29, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
NC State vs. Stanford	LOW SELL Stanford @ 99.9¢	$10.6k	0%	2h ago	excluded
UAE Tri-Nations ODIs: Afghanistan vs Zimbabwe	LOW BUY Afghanistan @ 96¢	$10.7k	96%	17h ago	excluded
Commanders vs. 49ers	LOW BUY 49ers @ 95¢	$19.0k	95%	4d ago	excluded
Cowboys vs. Packers	LOW BUY Packers @ 90¢	$36.0k	90%	5d ago	excluded
Panthers vs. Eagles	LOW BUY Panthers @ 94¢	$18.8k	94%	5d ago	excluded
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	LOW BUY Buccaneers @ 92.8¢	$32.5k	93%	15d ago	excluded
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 88¢	$35.4k	12%	15d ago	missed
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 89¢	$38.4k	89%	17d ago	called
Falcons vs. Saints	LOW BUY Falcons @ 97.9¢	$40.0k	98%	18d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW SELL No @ 98¢	$41.7k	2%	44d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	MED SELL No @ 96.8¢	$55.2k 2.3× usual	3%	52d ago	missed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$41.9k	90%	67d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢	$41.9k	1%	67d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 90¢	$18.9k	90%	68d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.8¢	$18.8k	1%	68d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$18.9k	88%	68d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$159.8k 6.8× usual	0%	69d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	LOW SELL No @ 98.3¢	$19.5k	2%	69d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	LOW BUY No @ 98.6¢	$157.8k 6.7× usual	99%	81d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 92.7¢	$14.8k	93%	96d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	MED SELL Yes @ 94.2¢	$38.6k	6%	97d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢	$33.4k	67%	108d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 15¢	$15.1k	85%	108d ago	called
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 18¢	$18.9k	82%	108d ago	missed
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 84¢	$13.2k	84%	108d ago	called
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$24.8k	99%	111d ago	excluded
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 93¢	$21.4k	93%	112d ago	called
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$32.2k	97%	114d ago	excluded
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	LOW BUY Yes @ 98¢	$29.4k	98%	116d ago	excluded
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 98.7¢	$29.6k	99%	120d ago	excluded
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢	$10.7k	11%	132d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 16¢	$16.4k	16%	132d ago	missed
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 17¢	$17.1k	17%	132d ago	called
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢	$49.5k 2.1× usual	99%	133d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW SELL No @ 98.9¢	$11.9k	1%	147d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢	$11.9k	1%	148d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 97.4¢	$29.0k	97%	152d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.4¢	$18.1k	3%	152d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.5¢	$23.4k	3%	153d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98¢	$14.9k	2%	157d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢	$23.7k	97%	160d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 99¢	$27.5k	99%	163d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$59.8k 2.5× usual	0%	163d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$12.3k	95%	166d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.1¢	$12.6k	3%	166d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 95¢	$20.9k	95%	167d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 97.4¢	$15.1k	3%	167d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$38.4k	96%	174d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$28.3k	0%	174d ago	excluded
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	LOW BUY No @ 91¢	$11.2k	91%	174d ago	called
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$19.2k	96%	174d ago	called
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.3¢	$60.3k 2.6× usual	1%	188d ago	excluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	LOW BUY No @ 87¢	$11.6k	87%	205d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW SELL No @ 91¢	$13.1k	9%	214d ago	missed
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$12.6k	88%	216d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢	$42.5k	97%	218d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$52.4k 2.2× usual	0%	241d ago	excluded
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 3?	LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢	$26.8k	100%	263d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 94¢	$15.0k	94%	265d ago	called
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?	LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢	$10.6k	100%	268d ago	excluded
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	MED SELL No @ 97¢	$36.9k	3%	281d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 96.1¢	$19.2k	96%	286d ago	called
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$33.7k	0%	298d ago	excluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢	$23.7k	79%	306d ago	called
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 99.1¢	$50.0k 2.1× usual	99%	326d ago	excluded
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.6¢	$39.8k	100%	353d ago	excluded

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	2	1.9	+3.8 pts
Other	3	3	2.8	+6.3 pts
Economy	2	2	1.8	+12.5 pts

Hashbrown

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