chinamax

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -28.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Spread: Lions (-3.5)−$87Packers · avg 52¢ → 50¢ · $2,913

Price-adjusted edge

-28.0 pts

Called / graded

1/3

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$220.6k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$180.8k

Last 30 days −$25.9k · $4.51M volume · 807 trades · since Jun 30, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$22.4k

Open P&L · 47 positions

−$110.8k

Closed-position win rate

60%

131 closed

Wallet age · markets

116d

242 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	3	1	1.8	-28.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Rams vs. Broncos	LOW BUY Rams @ 51¢	$10.0k	51%	26d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$41.7k	0%	96d ago	excluded
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢	$24.7k	59%	97d ago	called
France vs. England: Team to Win	LOW SELL England @ 99.9¢	$22.7k	0%	97d ago	excluded
France vs. England: Team to Win	LOW BUY England @ 53¢	$12.0k	53%	97d ago	excluded
France vs. England: Team to Win	LOW SELL England @ 97.3¢	$20.3k	3%	97d ago	excluded
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY England @ 54¢	$38.9k	54%	101d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 33¢	$30.0k	33%	112d ago	missed
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 3.3¢	$20.3k	97%	113d ago	called

Rams vs. Broncosexcluded

BUY Rams @ 51¢$10.0k

LOW chinamax · 26d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$41.7k

LOW chinamax · 96d ago

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY Yes @ 59¢$24.7k

LOW chinamax · 97d ago

France vs. England: Team to Winexcluded

SELL England @ 99.9¢$22.7k

LOW chinamax · 97d ago

France vs. England: Team to Winexcluded

BUY England @ 53¢$12.0k

LOW chinamax · 97d ago

France vs. England: Team to Winexcluded

SELL England @ 97.3¢$20.3k

LOW chinamax · 97d ago

England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancemissed

BUY England @ 54¢$38.9k

LOW chinamax · 101d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 33¢$30.0k

MED chinamax · 112d ago

Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 3.3¢$20.3k

LOW chinamax · 113d ago

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