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+$1,435Anthropic · avg 89¢ → 95¢ · $24.3k−$38No · avg 92.8¢ → 92.5¢ · $9,962−$455Yes · avg 82¢ → 76¢ · $6,245+$833Yes · avg 81¢ → 94.5¢ · $5,833 · 1 proven with, 0 against−$916Yes · avg 89¢ → 77¢ · $5,784+$109No · avg 96¢ → 98.1¢ · $5,109+$55Yes · avg 91¢ → 92¢ · $5,055+$720No · avg 80¢ → 96.4¢ · $4,220
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.9 wins, so it did +7.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+7.1 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.9
Flagged volume
$161.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$6,734
Last 30 days +$10.5k · $3.94M volume · 3,955 trades · since Jun 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$111.1k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
134d
1314 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 2 | 1.9 | +7.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tallon Griekspoor | LOW BUY Tallon Griekspoor @ 88¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $13.5k | excluded |
 US Open WTA: Madison Keys vs Qinwen Zheng | LOW BUY Qinwen Zheng @ 94¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $37.7k | excluded |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $12.0k | called |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $18.0k | called |
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