← Wallets
−$500Saints · avg 46¢ → 44¢ · $8,700+$58Raiders · avg 51¢ → 54¢ · $1,239+$10Under · avg 52¢ → 52¢ · $1,045+$136Yes · avg 6¢ → 10¢ · $317+$9No · avg 55¢ → 71¢ · $40
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.6 wins, so it did -10.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-10.8 pts
Called / graded
3/6
Expected from price
3.6
Flagged volume
$447.8k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$10k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Panthers vs. Eagles at 61¢) and the edge is -20.8 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 54% · n=2
60–80¢
75% vs 64% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$594.0k
Last 30 days −$286.0k · $23.10M volume · 33,504 trades · since Mar 19, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$4.63M
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$109.4k
Closed-position win rate
83%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
219d
842 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 3 | 3.6 | -10.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | LOW BUY Rockets @ 48¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| Spread: 76ers (-3.5) | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 54¢ | $16.2k | missed |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | LOW BUY Thunder @ 51¢ | $20.4k | excluded |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | LOW BUY Knicks @ 61¢ | $18.0k | missed |
 Seahawks vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Broncos @ 77¢ | $31.0k | excluded |
| Panthers vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Panthers @ 61¢ | $20.4k | called |
| Rams vs. Eagles | LOW BUY Rams @ 63¢ | $25.2k | excluded |
| Rams vs. Broncos | LOW BUY Rams @ 54¢ | $21.6k | missed |
| Ravens vs. Cowboys | LOW BUY Ravens @ 62¢ | $18.6k | called |
| Giants vs. Rams | MED BUY Rams @ 77¢ | $76.8k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
 US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz | MED BUY Ben Shelton @ 60¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Flavio Cobolli | MED BUY Francisco Comesana @ 70¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | MED BUY Egypt @ 84¢ | $46.4k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 62¢ | $24.6k | excluded |
| Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes | LOW BUY Illinois Fighting Illini @ 73¢ | $58.0k 2.4× usual |
called |
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