Rex416

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.1 wins, so it did +87.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?+$1,501No · avg 53¢ → 84¢ · $4,085 Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31?−$907Yes · avg 86¢ → 49¢ · $1,204 Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$7Yes · avg 75¢ → 76¢ · $760 Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on October 18?+$446Yes · avg 35¢ → 94.5¢ · $709 Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?−$22Yes · avg 14¢ → 14¢ · $682 Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by November 30, 2026?+$12Yes · avg 81¢ → 83¢ · $653 Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?−$134No · avg 74¢ → 60¢ · $605 Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?+$68Yes · avg 80¢ → 91.9¢ · $545

Price-adjusted edge

+87.2 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.1

Flagged volume

$54.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±33.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$27.4k

Last 30 days +$58.0k · $26.48M volume · 74,335 trades · since Feb 11, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$1.25M

Open P&L · 225 positions

+$1,933

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

986d

6656 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.1	+87.2 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$14.8k	13%	86d ago	called
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.8¢	$15.0k	0%	129d ago	excluded
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢	$13.0k	0%	144d ago	excluded
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢	$11.8k	1%	151d ago	excluded

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?called

SELL Yes @ 87¢$14.8k

LOW Rex416 · 86d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.8¢$15.0k

LOW Rex416 · 129d ago

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.9¢$13.0k

LOW Rex416 · 144d ago

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?excluded

SELL No @ 98.7¢$11.8k

LOW Rex416 · 151d ago

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