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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.6 wins, so it did -58.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-58.1 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.6
Flagged volume
$617.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$230.9k
Last 30 days +$232.8k · $2.40M volume · 230 trades · since Oct 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$507.2k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$281.7k
Closed-position win rate
95%
55 closed
Wallet age · markets
9d
78 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.6 | -58.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 246.5 | MED BUY Under @ 54¢ | $19.9k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5 | MED SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $38.8k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5 | MED SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $54.4k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 238.5 | MED BUY Under @ 57¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 48.5 | MED BUY Under @ 47¢ | $13.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5 | HIGH BUY Under @ 62¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5 | MED BUY Under @ 51¢ | $20.0k | called |
 Japan Women's Open: Mary Stoiana vs Moyuka Uchijima | HIGH BUY Mary Stoiana @ 73¢ | $106.8k 4.3× usual |
excluded |
| Kings vs. Clippers AND Kings vs. Clippers: O/U 228.5 | LOW SELL @ 99.8¢ | $11.7k | pending |
 Guangzhou 2: Liam Broady vs Akira Santillan | MED BUY Liam Broady @ 68¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 | MED SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $47.4k | excluded |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 235.5 | LOW SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $24.8k | excluded |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5 | MED SELL Under @ 99.9¢ | $43.1k | excluded |
| Lisbon: Marco Trungelliti vs Carlo Alberto Caniato | MED BUY Carlo Alberto Caniato @ 81¢ | $55.8k 2.3× usual |
excluded |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5 | MED BUY Under @ 58¢ | $25.0k | called |
| Jazz vs. Grizzlies: O/U 242.5 | MED BUY Under @ 53¢ | $24.5k | called |
| Hornets vs. Nets: O/U 216.5 | MED BUY Over @ 58¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| Guangzhou 2: Coleman Wong vs Kasidit Samrej | MED BUY Kasidit Samrej @ 34¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 | MED BUY Over @ 56¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5 | MED BUY Over @ 51¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
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