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+$706Yes · avg 90.7¢ → 91.5¢ · $81.6k+$2,889No · avg 87¢ → 93.5¢ · $41.6k−$500No · avg 83¢ → 82¢ · $27.2k+$3,603No · avg 82¢ → 97.5¢ · $22.4k+$383No · avg 96¢ → 97.8¢ · $21.8k+$1,081No · avg 82¢ → 95¢ · $7,873+$1,146Yes · avg 78¢ → 96.2¢ · $5,982+$917No · avg 79¢ → 94.5¢ · $5,644 · 1 proven with, 0 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.1 wins, so it did -5.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-5.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.1
Flagged volume
$68.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$40.5k
Last 30 days +$3,961 · $4.20M volume · 6,239 trades · since Sep 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$115.2k
Open P&L · 115 positions
+$7,185
Closed-position win rate
82%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
398d
741 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +18.0 pts |
| Other | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -29.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 82¢ | $16.7k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 71¢ | $36.5k 2.2× usual |
missed |
 US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 96.5¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
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