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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.7 wins, so it did +16.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
None of its 1 open bets has a proven or losing wallet on either side yet.
Price-adjusted edge
+16.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.7
Flagged volume
$89.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$15.0k
Last 30 days +$2,926 · $600.1k volume · 168 trades · since May 15, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$55.0k
Open P&L · 31 positions
−$39.6k
Closed-position win rate
88%
69 closed
Wallet age · markets
162d
98 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +19.0 pts |
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +13.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trail Blazers vs. Kings | LOW BUY Trail Blazers @ 80¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Hornets | LOW BUY Hawks @ 56¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | LOW SELL No @ 81¢ | $12.2k | pending |
 Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Astra Invicta (BO3) - PARI Universe Group B | LOW BUY PARIVISION @ 93¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 81¢ | $10.4k | called |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 87¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 79¢ | $12.6k | excluded |
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