tsihkodiives

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did +36.5 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026?+$1,845No · avg 95¢ → 98.6¢ · $52.0k Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?+$6,554No · avg 40¢ → 64¢ · $17.5k Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$1,758No · avg 22¢ → 20¢ · $16.4k Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$221No · avg 86¢ → 87¢ · $13.3k Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$693No · avg 75¢ → 79¢ · $12.7k Will Hyperliquid dip to $30 by December 31, 2026?+$184No · avg 95¢ → 96.5¢ · $11.5k Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?−$7,865Yes · avg 15¢ → 8.5¢ · $9,854 · 0 proven with, 1 against Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$2,081No · avg 71¢ → 92¢ · $9,174

Price-adjusted edge

+36.5 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

0.3

Flagged volume

$44.1k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$13.3k

Last 30 days −$107.3k · $102.56M volume · 32,964 trades · since Sep 25, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 476 closed

+$579.5k

Open P&L · 500 positions

−$729.5k

Closed-position win rate

83%

476 closed

Wallet age · markets

394d

1170 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	0.3	+36.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 19¢	$18.8k	19%	107d ago	called
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 8.2¢	$10.7k	8%	114d ago	missed
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 87¢	$14.7k	13%	160d ago	excluded

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY Yes @ 19¢$18.8k

LOW tsihkodiives · 107d ago

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 8.2¢$10.7k

LOW tsihkodiives · 114d ago

Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 87¢$14.7k

LOW tsihkodiives · 160d ago

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