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−$3,459Over · avg 55¢ → 17¢ · $1,541
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.1 wins, so it did +15.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +8.9 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+15.4 pts
Called / graded
4/6
Expected from price
3.1
Flagged volume
$299.8k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$40k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 4 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Patriots vs. Bears: O/U 50.5 at 52¢) and the edge is +8.9 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
20–40¢
0% vs 21% · n=1
40–60¢
75% vs 56% · n=4
60–80¢
100% vs 61% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$40.4k
Last 30 days −$10.4k · $8.35M volume · 1,798 trades · since Mar 14, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$816.8k
Open P&L · 29 positions
−$154.5k
Closed-position win rate
60%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
224d
581 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 4 | 3.1 | +15.4 pts |
History
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