paddaa

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -22.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?+$257No · avg 71¢ → 72¢ · $11.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?+$628No · avg 52¢ → 55¢ · $9,934 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?−$1,399No · avg 68¢ → 58¢ · $8,981 Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?+$1,724No · avg 62¢ → 78¢ · $8,228 NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?−$66No · avg 82¢ → 82¢ · $7,934 Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?+$234No · avg 64¢ → 66¢ · $6,234 Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?+$184No · avg 85¢ → 88¢ · $6,184 Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?+$1,687No · avg 43¢ → 65¢ · $4,955

Price-adjusted edge

-22.6 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.2

Flagged volume

$25.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±41.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$287.6k

Last 30 days +$45.8k · $18.08M volume · 35,095 trades · since Jul 08, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$669.7k

Open P&L · 277 positions

+$5,409

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

474d

1827 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	0	0.2	-22.6 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 84¢	$12.4k	16%	131d ago	excluded
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW SELL Yes @ 77¢	$12.8k	23%	131d ago	missed

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?excluded

SELL Yes @ 84¢$12.4k

LOW paddaa · 131d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed

SELL Yes @ 77¢$12.8k

LOW paddaa · 131d ago

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