nonkenny90

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?+$4,563No · avg 79¢ → 82¢ · $153.0k Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$222No · avg 92.3¢ → 91.5¢ · $25.4k Iran leadership change by December 31?+$2,809No · avg 75¢ → 86¢ · $22.4k Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?+$1,001No · avg 82¢ → 86¢ · $18.7k Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?+$3,256No · avg 75¢ → 97.5¢ · $14.2k Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$139No · avg 97.4¢ → 98.6¢ · $11.4k Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?+$1,195Yes · avg 85¢ → 98¢ · $8,958 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026+$113Yes · avg 80¢ → 82¢ · $7,493

Price-adjusted edge

+4.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$92.8k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$93.9k

Last 30 days +$2,581 · $32.17M volume · 87,564 trades · since Aug 01, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$1.36M

Open P&L · 180 positions

+$19.5k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

814d

9096 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	1.0	+4.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.5¢	$21.9k	1%	131d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢	$11.9k	1%	133d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$11.1k	100%	202d ago	excluded
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	LOW BUY No @ 96¢	$19.2k	96%	272d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.2¢	$28.8k	1%	272d ago	excluded

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.5¢$21.9k

LOW nonkenny90 · 131d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.4¢$11.9k

LOW nonkenny90 · 133d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$11.1k

LOW nonkenny90 · 202d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?called

BUY No @ 96¢$19.2k

LOW nonkenny90 · 272d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.2¢$28.8k

LOW nonkenny90 · 272d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0x5cd5c8d7a17c78d7389d8b87b611aed83322ac33"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0x5cd5c8d7a17c78d7389d8b87b611aed83322ac33.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x5cd5c8…