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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -32.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-32.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$3.41M
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$1.33M
Last 30 days −$282.4k · $87.01M volume · 21,619 trades · since Jan 11, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$7.43M
Open P&L · 84 positions
−$8.61M
Closed-position win rate
63%
282 closed
Wallet age · markets
286d
359 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -32.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Arthur Fery | LOW BUY Arthur Fery @ 48¢ | $30.0k | excluded |
 Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | MED BUY Chicago White Sox @ 49¢ | $70.0k | excluded |
| Shanghai Rolex Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Dalibor Svrcina | MED BUY Dalibor Svrcina @ 40¢ | $36.1k | excluded |
 Falcons vs. Packers | LOW BUY Falcons @ 70¢ | $37.3k | excluded |
 LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs | LOW SELL Anyones Legend @ 99.9¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | MED BUY St. Louis Cardinals @ 30¢ | $27.7k | excluded |
| LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Playoffs | MED BUY BNK FEARX @ 44¢ | $38.2k | excluded |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays | MED BUY Baltimore Orioles @ 40¢ | $170.7k 4.6× usual |
excluded |
 Cincinnati Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Anna Kalinskaya | LOW BUY Anna Kalinskaya @ 41¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| Cincinnati Open: Alexander Blockx vs Flavio Cobolli | LOW BUY Alexander Blockx @ 86¢ | $14.4k | excluded |
| LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers (BO5) - KeSPA Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY T1 @ 76¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | LOW BUY T1 @ 47¢ | $27.0k | excluded |
 Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays | LOW BUY Texas Rangers @ 43¢ | $23.9k | excluded |
| Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays | MED BUY Texas Rangers @ 44¢ | $218.4k 5.8× usual |
excluded |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | LOW SELL Dplus KIA @ 99.9¢ | $32.3k | excluded |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group | MED BUY Dplus KIA @ 42¢ | $61.4k | excluded |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D | MED BUY JD Gaming @ 33¢ | $75.9k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winner | LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢ | $75.2k 2.0× usual |
excluded |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 1 Winner | LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 78¢ | $26.3k | called |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winner | LOW SELL LYON @ 99.9¢ | $57.5k | excluded |
| LoL: G2 Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winner | LOW BUY LYON @ 60¢ | $10.0k | excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | HIGH BUY Colorado Rockies @ 32¢ | $115.4k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW SELL Los Angeles Dodgers @ 65¢ | $16.4k | excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 67¢ | $36.6k | excluded |
 Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Egypt @ 84¢ | $32.7k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Belgium @ 96.6¢ | $100.0k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | MED BUY Belgium @ 52¢ | $109.0k 2.9× usual |
excluded |
| Wimbledon WTA: Jasmine Paolini vs Alexandra Eala | MED BUY Jasmine Paolini @ 58¢ | $115.0k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Wimbledon ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Flavio Cobolli | LOW BUY Alex de Minaur @ 36¢ | $45.9k | excluded |
| Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens | HIGH BUY Elise Mertens @ 52¢ | $277.9k 7.4× usual |
excluded |
| Wimbledon WTA: Marie Bouzkova vs Elise Mertens | LOW BUY Marie Bouzkova @ 51¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
| LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 - Game 4 Winner | LOW BUY Bilibili Gaming @ 50¢ | $39.3k | excluded |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 98.1¢ | $78.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-30? | LOW BUY Yes @ 97.9¢ | $20.5k | excluded |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? | MED BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $95.2k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | HIGH BUY No @ 32¢ | $198.8k 5.3× usual |
missed |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY Yes @ 71¢ | $390.5k 10.5× usual |
excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | MED BUY No @ 38¢ | $33.8k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | HIGH BUY No @ 43¢ | $255.5k 6.8× usual |
excluded |
| Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz | LOW BUY Taylor Fritz @ 53¢ | $29.5k | excluded |
| Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova | MED BUY Nikola Bartunkova @ 41¢ | $51.9k | excluded |
| LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI | LOW BUY Hanwha Life Esports @ 49¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED BUY Thunder @ 57¢ | $225.7k 6.0× usual |
excluded |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres | LOW SELL St. Louis Cardinals @ 99.9¢ | $28.9k | excluded |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres | LOW BUY St. Louis Cardinals @ 36¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
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