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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did -17.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-17.5 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$362.3k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±31.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$577.6k
Last 30 days −$573.6k · $1.57M volume · 66 trades · since Oct 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$505.8k
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$69.0k
Closed-position win rate
50%
4 closed
Wallet age · markets
16d
8 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.4 | -17.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Cali: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Nicolas Jarry | LOW BUY Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida @ 54¢ | $18.5k | called |
 M25 Tamworth: Blake Ellis vs Benjamin O'Connell | LOW BUY Benjamin OConnell @ 25¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
 Buccaneers vs. Cowboys | HIGH BUY Cowboys @ 81¢ | $321.3k 14.2× usual |
missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x49f268…