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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+6.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$74.7k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$111.7k
Last 30 days −$167.5k · $9.43M volume · 14,143 trades · since Jul 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.18M
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$4
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
108d
1144 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Buenos Aires 2: Lucio Ratti vs Federico Coria | LOW BUY Federico Coria @ 84¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
 Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $30.3k 2.6× usual |
called |
| US Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen | LOW BUY Alex Michelsen @ 60¢ | $11.7k | excluded |
| US Open ATP: Zachary Svajda vs Daniel Altmaier | LOW BUY Zachary Svajda @ 99¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner | LOW SELL Team Falcons @ 99.9¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0x441909…