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+$600paiN · avg 56¢ → 57¢ · $23.0k · 0 proven with, 1 against+$306Imperial · avg 64¢ → 66¢ · $7,233+$412No · avg 82¢ → 90¢ · $5,067+$1,922Yes · avg 22¢ → 44¢ · $3,928−$26No · avg 97¢ → 95.8¢ · $2,047
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 5. The prices it paid implied about 2.7 wins, so it did +6.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 5 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: -4.0 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.4 pts
Called / graded
3/5
Expected from price
2.7
Flagged volume
$135.4k
Sample size5 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.2 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$6k5 graded bets in the order they resolved · 3 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Pla at 52¢) and the edge is -4.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
75% vs 52% · n=4
60–80¢
0% vs 60% · n=1
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$792.4k
Last 30 days +$194.5k · $27.33M volume · 43,452 trades · since Apr 04, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$5.78M
Open P&L · 41 positions
−$285.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
203d
1684 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 5 | 3 | 2.7 | +6.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Counter-Strike: Sangal vs Metizport (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 6: Closed Qualifier Playoffs | LOW BUY Metizport @ 47¢ | $16.4k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | LOW BUY Sinners @ 52¢ | $23.4k | called |
| Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs | LOW BUY BC.Game Esports @ 58¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | LOW BUY Spirit @ 56¢ | $16.8k | called |
| Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | LOW BUY Legacy @ 72¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY FURIA @ 60¢ | $24.0k | missed |
| Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | LOW BUY Spirit @ 44¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A | LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 53¢ | $12.9k | called |
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