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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 8. The prices it paid implied about 4.0 wins, so it did +12.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 8 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +6.3 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+12.1 pts
Called / graded
5/8
Expected from price
4.0
Flagged volume
$290.3k
Sample size8 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.7 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
+$24k8 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Spread: Lakers (-7.5) at 47¢) and the edge is +6.3 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
62% vs 50% · n=8
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$66.4k
Last 30 days +$66.1k · $1.97M volume · 1,352 trades · since Sep 29, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$444.4k
Open P&L · 57 positions
−$376.6k
Closed-position win rate
88%
76 closed
Wallet age · markets
25d
126 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 8 | 5 | 4.0 | +12.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spread: Lakers (-8.5) | LOW BUY Clippers @ 49¢ | $14.7k | called |
| Rockets vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 51¢ | $10.4k | called |
| Spread: Raptors (-8.5) | LOW BUY Raptors @ 51¢ | $15.3k | excluded |
| Spread: Pacers (-7.5) | LOW BUY Mavericks @ 52¢ | $20.8k | called |
| Spread: Bucks (-1.5) | LOW BUY Bulls @ 49¢ | $29.4k | excluded |
| Nuggets vs. Thunder: O/U 236.5 | LOW BUY Over @ 50¢ | $15.0k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-7.5) | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 48¢ | $14.4k | missed |
| Spread: Thunder (-9.5) | LOW BUY Nuggets @ 56¢ | $19.6k | missed |
| Spread: 76ers (-2.5) | LOW BUY 76ers @ 50¢ | $17.0k | called |
| Spread: Wizards (-4.5) | LOW SELL Wizards @ 99.9¢ | $29.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Clippers (-4.5) | LOW BUY Kings @ 48¢ | $19.2k | excluded |
| Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 234.5 | LOW SELL Over @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Spread: Lakers (-7.5) | LOW BUY Lakers @ 47¢ | $10.1k | called |
| Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) | LOW BUY Jazz @ 48¢ | $13.2k | excluded |
| Timberwolves vs. Heat: O/U 240.5 | LOW BUY Under @ 49¢ | $14.7k | excluded |
| Spread: Magic (-2.5) | LOW BUY Hawks @ 51¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
| Spread: Knicks (-4.5) | LOW BUY 76ers @ 51¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
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