← Wallets
+$544Yes · avg 81¢ → 84¢ · $16.7k+$370Yes · avg 83¢ → 87¢ · $7,830+$547No · avg 90.3¢ → 98.1¢ · $6,867+$461No · avg 77¢ → 82¢ · $6,600+$158No · avg 75¢ → 78¢ · $5,425+$109No · avg 85¢ → 86¢ · $5,190−$40Yes · avg 79¢ → 78¢ · $4,710−$13Yes · avg 99¢ → 98.7¢ · $4,283
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 5 of 9. The prices it paid implied about 4.5 wins, so it did +5.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 9 graded bets, too few to judge. Without its single best bet: +0.5 pts. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+5.2 pts
Called / graded
5/9
Expected from price
4.5
Flagged volume
$144.1k
Sample size9 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±10.4 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$33k9 graded bets in the order they resolved · 5 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep at 57¢) and the edge is +0.5 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
0–20¢
0% vs 8% · n=4
40–60¢
100% vs 57% · n=1
80–100¢
100% vs 91% · n=4
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$50.0k
Last 30 days +$5,412 · $15.70M volume · 21,324 trades · since Jun 21, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$222.5k
Open P&L · 155 positions
−$35.0k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
490d
1298 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5 | 2 | 2.1 | -2.8 pts |
| Economy | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | +24.0 pts |
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.6 pts |
History
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