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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -32.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-32.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$388.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$45.6k
Last 30 days +$2,731 · $14.13M volume · 4,381 trades · since Sep 12, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.64M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
407d
1574 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -32.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $15.9k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $29.7k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $19.9k | called |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $13.7k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $21.6k | excluded |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | LOW BUY No @ 56¢ | $12.1k | excluded |
 Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $23.6k | excluded |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $12.5k | called |
 Spurs vs. Thunder | MED SELL Thunder @ 91¢ | $34.2k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | LOW BUY Thunder @ 59¢ | $22.2k | excluded |
 Canadiens vs. Lightning | LOW SELL Canadiens @ 99.9¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | MED SELL Golden Knights @ 89¢ | $39.6k 2.5× usual |
excluded |
| Golden Knights vs. Utah | LOW BUY Golden Knights @ 54¢ | $24.0k | excluded |
 Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-17? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Devils vs. Penguins | LOW SELL Penguins @ 99.9¢ | $11.9k | excluded |
 Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-26? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| Spurs vs. Raptors | LOW SELL Spurs @ 99.9¢ | $15.1k | excluded |
| Warriors vs. Pelicans | LOW SELL Pelicans @ 99.9¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Patriots @ 32¢ | $11.3k | missed |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | LOW SELL Patriots @ 99.9¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
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