TheyAreTakingTheHobitsTo

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +59.7 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?−$9,698Yes · avg 88¢ → 74¢ · $51.8k Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?−$24.9kYes · avg 34¢ → 6.5¢ · $5,899 Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?−$35Yes · avg 88¢ → 86¢ · $2,595 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?−$755No · avg 48¢ → 6.5¢ · $118 · 0 proven with, 1 against

Price-adjusted edge

+59.7 pts

Called / graded

4/4

Expected from price

1.6

Flagged volume

$215.1k

Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$444.2k

Last 30 days −$34.0k · $2.07M volume · 3,703 trades · since Aug 04, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$560.7k

Open P&L · 89 positions

−$47.1k

Closed-position win rate

98%

164 closed

Wallet age · markets

81d

1590 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	4	4	1.6	+59.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢	$28.2k	63%	43d ago	called
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$98.8k 3.7× usual	99%	56d ago	excluded
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢	$38.1k	99%	63d ago	excluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	MED BUY Yes @ 29¢	$25.7k	29%	65d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 26¢	$11.0k	26%	67d ago	called
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 44¢	$13.2k	44%	74d ago	called

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 63¢$28.2k

LOW TheyAreTakingTheHobitsTo · 43d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.8¢$98.8k

LOW TheyAreTakingTheHobitsTo · 56d ago

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY No @ 98.8¢$38.1k

LOW TheyAreTakingTheHobitsTo · 63d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 29¢$25.7k

MED TheyAreTakingTheHobitsTo · 65d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 26¢$11.0k

LOW TheyAreTakingTheHobitsTo · 67d ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY Yes @ 44¢$13.2k

LOW TheyAreTakingTheHobitsTo · 74d ago

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