← Wallets
+$66.8kNo · avg 66¢ → 82¢ · $346.0k−$70.7kYes · avg 50¢ → 18¢ · $41.5k+$1,305No · avg 70¢ → 74¢ · $31.3k · 1 proven with, 0 against−$1,075Yes · avg 73¢ → 70¢ · $24.3k+$2,737Yes · avg 70¢ → 85¢ · $15.2k+$2,882Yes · avg 46¢ → 66¢ · $9,228 · 2 proven with, 0 against+$1,945No · avg 61¢ → 87¢ · $6,520+$1,578No · avg 39¢ → 60¢ · $4,579
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.5 wins, so it did +15.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Open bets: who else is there
Other rated wallets holding the same side, or the other side, of this wallet's open bets.
Yes · Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Same side: 1 proven · 0 losing Other side: 1 proven · 0 losing
Price-adjusted edge
+15.3 pts
Called / graded
2/3
Expected from price
1.5
Flagged volume
$265.3k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±28.6 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$344.5k
Last 30 days −$35.9k · $4.23M volume · 1,476 trades · since Jun 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$506.2k
Open P&L · 131 positions
−$190.9k
Closed-position win rate
72%
39 closed
Wallet age · markets
136d
71 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | +15.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 90¢ | $27.3k | pending |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 59¢ | $13.0k | called |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 42¢ | $34.5k | missed |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 53¢ | $14.9k | called |
 Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants | LOW BUY San Francisco Giants @ 44¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
 Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | LOW SELL Team Falcons @ 74¢ | $15.2k | excluded |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B | MED BUY Team Falcons @ 80¢ | $80.0k 3.8× usual |
excluded |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | MED BUY Washington Nationals @ 69¢ | $65.5k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
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