JustADonk

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did -81.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Washington Wizards make the 2027 NBA Playoffs?+$505No · avg 65¢ → 71¢ · $6,112 Will Miami Hurricanes win the 2027 CFP National Championship?−$132No · avg 86¢ → 83¢ · $3,594 Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?+$643Yes · avg 19¢ → 24¢ · $3,360 Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?−$170Yes · avg 68¢ → 64¢ · $3,127 Giants vs. Texans+$18Texans · avg 80¢ → 80¢ · $2,885 Will Miami FL have more than 10.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?−$658O 10.5 · avg 63¢ → 50¢ · $2,529 Will the Atlanta Falcons have more than 8.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?−$304No · avg 59¢ → 51¢ · $1,936 Will the Democratic Party win the MT-01 House seat?−$496No · avg 68¢ → 54¢ · $1,912

Price-adjusted edge

-81.0 pts

Called / graded

0/1

Expected from price

0.8

Flagged volume

$56.0k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±39.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$36.4k

Last 30 days −$172.8k · $22.20M volume · 29,583 trades · since Mar 26, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$2.94M

Open P&L · 475 positions

−$19.7k

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

212d

2417 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	0	0.8	-81.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group A	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 76¢	$11.1k	76%	9d ago	excluded
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys	LOW BUY Cowboys @ 81¢	$11.1k	81%	15d ago	missed
Chiefs vs. Raiders	LOW BUY Raiders @ 41¢	$10.2k	41%	20d ago	excluded
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner	LOW SELL Bilibili Gaming @ 99.9¢	$12.5k	0%	104d ago	excluded
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winner	LOW SELL LYON @ 99.9¢	$11.1k	0%	105d ago	excluded

Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Falcons (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Group Aexcluded

BUY Team Falcons @ 76¢$11.1k

LOW JustADonk · 9d ago

Buccaneers vs. Cowboysmissed

BUY Cowboys @ 81¢$11.1k

LOW JustADonk · 15d ago

Chiefs vs. Raidersexcluded

BUY Raiders @ 41¢$10.2k

LOW JustADonk · 20d ago

LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winnerexcluded

SELL Bilibili Gaming @ 99.9¢$12.5k

LOW JustADonk · 104d ago

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs LYON - Game 3 Winnerexcluded

SELL LYON @ 99.9¢$11.1k

LOW JustADonk · 105d ago

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