maxiforza

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -41.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?−$70Yes · avg 2¢ → 1.9¢ · $1,830 Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?−$35Yes · avg 9.8¢ → 8.1¢ · $165

Price-adjusted edge

-41.3 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$256.7k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.9 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$112.3k

Last 30 days +$9,865 · $2.87M volume · 591 trades · since Feb 05, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$61.4k

Open P&L · 55 positions

−$165.3k

Closed-position win rate

66%

331 closed

Wallet age · markets

261d

377 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	1.8	-41.3 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group B	LOW BUY Team Falcons @ 89¢	$47.6k 3.2× usual	89%	57d ago	called
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Spain @ 90¢	$50.0k 3.3× usual	90%	96d ago	excluded
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY Yes @ 93.2¢	$57.0k 3.8× usual	93%	96d ago	missed
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group D	LOW SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢	$11.6k	0%	99d ago	excluded
Lakers vs. Thunder	LOW BUY Thunder @ 88¢	$13.7k	88%	170d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$12.0k	0%	179d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	LOW BUY Spurs @ 75¢	$12.2k	75%	180d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW SELL Yes @ 98.4¢	$22.4k	2%	185d ago	excluded
Rockets vs. Lakers	LOW BUY Rockets @ 68¢	$16.2k	68%	185d ago	excluded
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	LOW BUY Yes @ 85¢	$14.0k	85%	194d ago	excluded

Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group Bcalled

BUY Team Falcons @ 89¢$47.6k

LOW maxiforza · 57d ago

Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Spain @ 90¢$50.0k

LOW maxiforza · 96d ago

Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 93.2¢$57.0k

LOW maxiforza · 96d ago

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Esports World Cup Group Dexcluded

SELL Hanwha Life Esports @ 99.9¢$11.6k

LOW maxiforza · 99d ago

Lakers vs. Thunderexcluded

BUY Thunder @ 88¢$13.7k

LOW maxiforza · 170d ago

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$12.0k

LOW maxiforza · 179d ago

Spurs vs. Trail Blazersexcluded

BUY Spurs @ 75¢$12.2k

LOW maxiforza · 180d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded

SELL Yes @ 98.4¢$22.4k

LOW maxiforza · 185d ago

Rockets vs. Lakersexcluded

BUY Rockets @ 68¢$16.2k

LOW maxiforza · 185d ago

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?excluded

BUY Yes @ 85¢$14.0k

LOW maxiforza · 194d ago

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