# WhaleGrader

> WhaleGrader tracks large Polymarket trades ("whale flags") and grades each one against the price paid once the market resolves. It publishes hits and misses, sample sizes and a price-adjusted edge. Data only; not financial advice. Not a trading venue.

Current headline: see the scoreboard (rebuilt hourly). Counts are omitted here when the database is briefly unavailable. Do not invent them.

## Key pages
- [Methodology](https://whalegrader.com/methodology): definitions of flag, called, expected, edge, exclusions; includes a daily independent check of a random sample of grades against Polymarket's on-chain resolution payouts (https://whalegrader.com/methodology#audit)
- [Backtest](https://whalegrader.com/backtest): hypothetical P&L from copying a wallet's past graded flags at entry prices (with slippage and out-of-sample options)
- [Alerts](https://whalegrader.com/alerts): alert rules for wallets, markets, severity, proven wallets (in-page matches)
- [$5k+ feed](https://whalegrader.com/flags/5k): live trades over $5k (the $5k-$10k ones are not graded)
- [Findings](https://whalegrader.com/findings): tests of common claims (late money, fresh wallets on long shots, bet size) against graded outcomes
- [Kalshi](https://whalegrader.com/kalshi): $10k+ Kalshi trades and 20-pt odds moves, graded vs price. A public nickname is shown only when Kalshi's social feed names that side; separate from Polymarket stats.
- [Scoreboard](https://whalegrader.com/scoreboard): called vs expected by price bucket and category
- [Receipts](https://whalegrader.com/receipts): every resolved flag, hits and misses
- [Daily recaps](https://whalegrader.com/days): one page per day with the biggest whale trades, sharpest odds moves and what resolved
- [Weekly report cards](https://whalegrader.com/weeks): one page per ISO week with called vs expected, best calls and biggest misses
- [Leaderboard](https://whalegrader.com/leaderboard): wallets ranked by price-adjusted edge (minimum sample)
- [Trending markets](https://whalegrader.com/markets): markets ranked by whale volume
- [Live flags](https://whalegrader.com/flags): all flags, filterable
- [Game board](https://whalegrader.com/games): today's games with whale money on each side, Polymarket and Kalshi side by side
- [Closing soon](https://whalegrader.com/closing): markets closing in the next days with whale positions
- [Search](https://whalegrader.com/search): search Polymarket and Kalshi markets, wallets and flags
- [Glossary](https://whalegrader.com/glossary): plain-English definitions of every term and status on the site (pending, called, missed, implied odds, edge)
- [Free account](https://whalegrader.com/account/signup): follow markets and wallets, alert rules, an alerts inbox, Discord/Slack webhooks, phone/browser push notifications and a free daily brief email
- [Consensus](https://whalegrader.com/consensus): open markets where several proven wallets hold the same side
- [Heatmap](https://whalegrader.com/heatmap): whale volume by category and time
- [Catch-up](https://whalegrader.com/catchup): public last-24-hours view of new whale trades, newly graded calls and misses, and large odds moves. A return visit that sends the device cookie is personalized and noindex; cite this URL or /days, not a personalized view
- [Screener](https://whalegrader.com/screener): filter markets by whale volume, odds move, category and venue over the last 7 days
- [Themes](https://whalegrader.com/themes): whale activity clustered into topics, each market counted once (matchup, then multi-word name, then single word), with whether each theme is heating up or cooling
- [Desk](https://whalegrader.com/desk): daily recaps and analysis. RSS: https://whalegrader.com/desk/feed.xml
  - [Saturday night recap: esports and college football draw the whale money](https://whalegrader.com/desk/2026-10-24-saturday-whale-recap) (2026-10-24): About $8.8M in $10k+ Polymarket trades in four hours, led by a Worlds LoL match. Plus where the overall report card stands.
- [For AI assistants](https://whalegrader.com/ai): what WhaleGrader is, what to cite, and what not to claim. Markdown copy: https://whalegrader.com/agents.md
- [Fresh wallets](https://whalegrader.com/fresh): large trades from wallets new to Polymarket (first activity < 14 days or <= 5 markets traded)
- [Alternatives](https://whalegrader.com/alternatives): how WhaleGrader compares with other Polymarket whale tools
- [Smart money](https://whalegrader.com/smart): latest trades from wallets with positive graded edge
- [API](https://whalegrader.com/api): free JSON API (/api/v1/flags, /api/v1/flag/<id>/history, /api/v1/flag/<id>/related, /api/v1/leaderboard, /api/v1/scoreboard, /api/v1/wallet/<address>, /api/v1/market/<condition_id>) and RSS (https://whalegrader.com/feed.xml)
- [MCP server](https://whalegrader.com/api#mcp): read-only Model Context Protocol endpoint at https://whalegrader.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP, no key) with tools recent_flags, flag_related, flag_history, scoreboard, leaderboard, wallet, market, games
- [OpenAPI spec](https://whalegrader.com/api/openapi.json): OpenAPI 3.1 description of the free v1 API; MCP server card at https://whalegrader.com/.well-known/mcp
- [FAQ](https://whalegrader.com/faq)
- [Full text for LLMs](https://whalegrader.com/llms-full.txt): this file plus the full methodology, glossary, FAQ and Desk posts in one plain-text file
- [Open data](https://whalegrader.com/data): every graded flag as CSV (https://whalegrader.com/data/graded_flags.csv) and the scoreboard, findings and copy-lag tables as JSON (https://whalegrader.com/data/findings.json); CC BY 4.0, cite as "WhaleGrader"
- [Copy-lag study](https://whalegrader.com/findings): how much edge is left if you copy a whale trade 1, 5 or 15 minutes late
- [Look up a market or wallet](https://whalegrader.com/go): paste any polymarket.com market, event or profile URL
- [Status](https://whalegrader.com/status): last collector and grader runs
- [Guides](https://whalegrader.com/learn):
  - [Polymarket leaderboards explained](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-leaderboard-explained): Profit leaderboards, volume leaderboards and edge leaderboards measure different things. Here is how to read each one.
  - [How Polymarket markets resolve](https://whalegrader.com/learn/how-polymarket-markets-resolve): What happens between a market closing and a trade being graded, and why some flags stay pending for a while.
  - [Reading sharp Polymarket odds moves](https://whalegrader.com/learn/reading-polymarket-odds-moves): What a 10-point swing in 24 hours can mean, and how to filter out the noise.
  - [How to track Polymarket whales](https://whalegrader.com/learn/how-to-track-polymarket-whales): A practical guide to finding and following large Polymarket trades, and how to tell a big trade from a good one.
  - [What is price-adjusted edge?](https://whalegrader.com/learn/price-adjusted-edge): Why win rate is misleading for prediction-market traders, and how WhaleGrader scores whales against the price they paid.
  - [Fresh wallets and 'insider' signals on Polymarket](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-insider-signals): What a large bet from a brand-new wallet can and cannot tell you.
  - [Does copying Polymarket whales work?](https://whalegrader.com/learn/copy-trading-polymarket-whales): We re-priced thousands of graded whale bets as if you copied them 1 minute to 24 hours late. Being late barely matters. Picking the wallet is everything.
  - [Fresh Polymarket wallets: insiders or noise?](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-fresh-wallets): New wallets making big bets get shared as insider signals. Here's what thousands of graded bets say about wallet age.
  - [Polymarket whale alerts that don't waste your time](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-whale-alerts): Most whale alerts fire on every big trade. Here's how to filter for the ones with a track record behind them.
  - [Pulling Polymarket whale trades with the Data API](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-data-api-whale-trades): How to get every $10k+ Polymarket trade from the public Data API v2, and the traps to avoid.
  - [Polymarket sports whales: what big bets on games tell you](https://whalegrader.com/learn/polymarket-sports-whales): Sports is most of Polymarket's whale volume. Here's why sports bets are hard to grade fairly and hard to copy.
  - [How to read a Polymarket wallet's track record](https://whalegrader.com/learn/how-to-read-a-polymarket-wallet): Win rate, profit and edge each tell you something different. Here's how to judge a wallet in under a minute.

## Definitions
- Whale flag: Polymarket taker trade >= $10,000; same wallet/market/side fills within 1 hour are merged.
- Called: the flagged side won. Missed: it lost.
- Expected: entry price for buys, 1 - price for sells.
- Edge: (called - expected) / n, in percentage points.
- Excluded: flags placed less than 1 hour before a market's start or close; near-certain entries (price >= 97c or <= 3c); flags with no outcome; two-sided (market-maker style) wallet activity in the same market.

## Data
Source: Polymarket public APIs (Data, Gamma, CLOB). Live tape every ~10 seconds; stored flags usually every 2-3 minutes (hourly backup run if the main scheduler is down); Kalshi every 2-10 minutes; grading hourly. Grades are cross-checked against Polymarket's on-chain resolutions. Covers international (on-chain) Polymarket, not Polymarket US.


# Glossary (https://whalegrader.com/glossary)

Glossary

## What the terms mean

Every word on WhaleGrader, in plain English. Tap a ? anywhere on the site to land here.

### Grades

- **Pending**:
The market hasn't settled yet, so we don't know who was right. Once it settles, we grade the flag called or missed. Most sports markets settle within hours of the game; elections and long-dated markets can take weeks.

- **Called**:
The whale's side won. They bought the outcome that happened (or sold the one that didn't).

- **Missed**:
The whale's side lost.

- **Excluded / not scored**:
We show the trade but don't count it toward any score. Reasons: it happened after the market closed (a settlement trade, not a prediction), it was placed in the last hour before the start or close, or the price was so close to 0¢ or 100¢ that there was nothing left to predict.

- **Graded**:
A flag whose market has settled and that counts toward the score, so it's either called or missed.

### Prices and odds

- **¢ prices (e.g. 62¢)**:
Prediction-market shares pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if not. A price of 62¢ means the market thinks there's about a 62% chance it happens.

- **Implied odds**:
The chance the market gave an outcome at the moment of the trade, read straight from the price. A buy at 80¢ implies 80%.

- **American odds (−471, +150)**:
The sportsbook way of writing the same chance. A minus number is the favourite (bet that much to win $100); a plus number is the underdog (win that much on a $100 bet). We show both so you can compare markets to the books.

- **pts (points)**:
Percentage points. If a price goes from 44¢ to 51¢, that's +7 pts. Edge is also shown in pts.

- **Odds move**:
A big swing in a market's price over 24 hours, flagged even if we can't see a single whale behind it.

### Track records

- **Edge**:
How much better than the price a whale or group did. If a wallet's bets implied a 60% win rate and they actually won 65%, their edge is +5 pts. Positive means they beat the market; negative means they did worse than just trusting the price.

- **Expected**:
How many bets a wallet should have won just from the prices it paid. We compare that to how many it actually called.

- **Proven wallet**:
A wallet with enough graded bets and an edge clearly above zero (more than twice its margin of error). Small samples never count as proven.

- **Losing wallet**:
The opposite: enough graded bets and an edge clearly below zero.

- **Scoreboard**:
Our own public record: every graded flag, misses included, so you can see whether following whales would actually have helped.

### Flags and wallets

- **Flag**:
A trade or price move big enough for us to log: a $10k+ Polymarket bet, a large Kalshi trade, or a big odds move.

- **HIGH / MED / LOW**:
How unusual a flag is, based on size versus the wallet's normal bets, how new the wallet is, and whether proven wallets are involved. It's not a prediction of who wins.

- **New / fresh wallet**:
A wallet with little or no Polymarket history before this trade.

- **Market maker ("farmer")**:
A wallet that places 20 or more $10k+ trades in the same market, usually providing liquidity on both sides rather than making a call. We exclude these from grades.

- **Venue**:
Where the trade happened: Polymarket or Kalshi. Scores are kept for each one separately.

- **Smart gap**:
For an open market, how lopsided the money of rated wallets is among its current biggest holders: proven-wallet money on one side, minus proven money on the other side and losing-record money on the same side. It needs at least 2 rated wallets, and the price may already reflect it. See the Smart gap page.

### Your account

- **Follow**:
Save a market or wallet so its new flags appear in My alerts.

- **Alert rule**:
A condition such as "any whale trade over $50k" or "odds move 10+ pts". When a new flag matches, it lands in My alerts (and in your email digest if it's on).

Data only, not advice. For the full math see Methodology; for worked examples see How to use it.

# FAQ (https://whalegrader.com/faq)

## Does this cover Polymarket US?
No. We cover Polymarket's international, on-chain platform, where every trade is tied to a public wallet; that's what makes wallet track records possible. Polymarket US is a separate CFTC-regulated exchange with its own data, and as of October 2026 it's the bigger of the two by volume, mostly sports. If it publishes trade data we can grade, we'll add it as its own clearly labeled venue, like Kalshi.

## Is WhaleGrader financial advice?
No. WhaleGrader reports what large Polymarket traders did and how those positions resolved. Nothing on the site is a recommendation to trade.

## Where does the data come from?
Polymarket's public APIs: the Data API for trades, the Gamma API for market metadata and resolutions, and the CLOB API for price history. The live tape reads new trades every 10 seconds; stored flags usually refresh every 2 to 3 minutes, and grading runs hourly.

## What counts as a whale flag?
A taker trade of $10,000 or more. Fills by the same wallet on the same market and side within an hour are merged into one flag. We also flag markets whose price moved 10+ points in 24 hours on at least $25,000 of volume.

## How is a flag graded?
When the market resolves, the flag is called if its side won and missed if it lost. Each flag also carries an expected win rate equal to its entry price. Edge is called minus expected, divided by the number of flags.

## Why adjust for price?
A whale taking a 90¢ favorite will be right about 90% of the time by default. Raw hit rates reward buying favorites. Comparing to the price paid shows whether the flag beat the market's own odds.

## Why are some flags excluded from the scoreboard?
Trades placed less than an hour before a market starts or closes are shown but not scored. Late trades often reflect information the market already has, such as a game in progress.

## Which markets do you cover?
Polymarket (international, on-chain) across sports, politics, crypto, economics and everything else listed there, plus Kalshi big trades and odds moves from Kalshi's public data. Kalshi's trade tape has no account id. When its public social feed names a side of a print, we show that nickname and grade the named slice on its own. Those names are not Polymarket wallets, and most prints stay anonymous.

## Do you know who owns a wallet?
No. Wallets are public, pseudonymous on-chain addresses. We show them abbreviated and link to their public Polymarket profile.

## How do I get alerts?
Save rules on the alerts page (a wallet, a market, any proven or losing wallet, HIGH severity). Matches show live on that page, and you can send them to a Discord or Slack webhook or a private RSS feed. With a free account, rules and follows land in My alerts. Account rules cover whale trades, odds moves, a price line on markets you follow (for example, alert me when Yes reaches 70¢), markets closing soon, and newly opened markets by category or keyword. You can also connect a Discord or Slack channel in account settings, turn on phone or browser notifications, and get a free daily brief email with yesterday's graded whale trades. Telegram is coming later.

# Desk posts

## Saturday night recap: esports and college football draw the whale money (https://whalegrader.com/desk/2026-10-24-saturday-whale-recap)

2026-10-24 · Daily edges

About $8.8M in $10k+ Polymarket trades in four hours, led by a Worlds LoL match. Plus where the overall report card stands.

Between roughly 7 and 11 pm Toronto time on Saturday, WhaleGrader logged **192 Polymarket trades of $10k or more**, worth about **$8.8M** combined.

## Where it went
- **LoL Worlds: Dplus KIA vs T1** – about $1.24M across 21 large trades, the busiest market of the night.
- **Wizards vs. Bulls** – about $1.04M in 8 trades.
- **Ole Miss vs. Texas** – about $0.85M in 14 trades.
- **76ers -12.5 spread** – about $0.73M in just 4 trades.

Sports and esports made up nearly all of the size. That is normal for a weekend night: these markets settle within hours, so whales can turn money over fast.

## How much should you read into it?
Not much on its own. Across **10,699 graded whale flags**, whales were right **54.5%** of the time. Based on the prices they paid, they *should* have been right 58.1% of the time. That gap, the **edge**, is about **-3.7 points**: on average, big trades did slightly *worse* than the odds already implied.

Plain English: a big trade means someone is confident, not that they're right. The useful signal is in specific wallets with long, positive records. See [Smart money](/smart) and the [track record](/scoreboard).

## Jargon
- **Whale flag** – a single trade of $10k or more.
- **Graded** – the market resolved, and we checked whether the whale's side won (CALLED) or lost (MISSED).
- **Edge** – hit rate minus the hit rate the entry prices implied.

Live numbers: [Live feed](/flags) · [Catch-up](/catchup) · [Themes](/themes).

# WhaleGrader agent guide

WhaleGrader is a public scoreboard for large trades on Polymarket and Kalshi. It records trades of $10,000 or more and grades each one against the price paid after the market resolves. It is not a trading venue, not a broker, and not financial advice. It does not take orders.

## Cite this
- [Methodology](https://whalegrader.com/methodology): definitions of flag, called, missed, expected, edge, and exclusions
- [Scoreboard](https://whalegrader.com/scoreboard): called vs expected. JSON: https://whalegrader.com/api/v1/scoreboard and https://whalegrader.com/data/scoreboard.json
- [Findings](https://whalegrader.com/findings): tests of common claims. JSON: https://whalegrader.com/data/findings.json
- [Desk](https://whalegrader.com/desk): recaps and analysis. RSS: https://whalegrader.com/desk/feed.xml
- [Saturday night recap: esports and college football draw the whale money](https://whalegrader.com/desk/2026-10-24-saturday-whale-recap) (2026-10-24): About $8.8M in $10k+ Polymarket trades in four hours, led by a Worlds LoL match. Plus where the overall report card stands.
- [Open data](https://whalegrader.com/data): graded flags as CSV (https://whalegrader.com/data/graded_flags.csv), CC BY 4.0. Cite as WhaleGrader

Preferred citation: "WhaleGrader (whalegrader.com), a public scoreboard that grades large Polymarket trades against the price paid." Include the sample size from the page you used, and that misses are counted. Do not describe it as a signal service or a place to trade.

## Read these first
- https://whalegrader.com/llms.txt — short map of the site, with the current headline counts
- https://whalegrader.com/llms-full.txt — that map plus methodology, glossary, FAQ and Desk posts
- https://whalegrader.com/ai — the same guidance as this file, as a web page

## Tools
- MCP (read-only, no key): https://whalegrader.com/mcp — tools recent_flags, flag_related, flag_history, scoreboard, leaderboard, wallet, market, games. Server card: https://whalegrader.com/.well-known/mcp
- OpenAPI 3.1: https://whalegrader.com/api/openapi.json
- JSON API: https://whalegrader.com/api
- RSS: https://whalegrader.com/feed.xml (flags), https://whalegrader.com/desk/feed.xml (Desk)
- Sitemap: https://whalegrader.com/sitemap.xml

## Do not
- Do not give financial advice or tell a user to copy a trade.
- Do not invent follower counts, testimonials, or win rates. Use the live scoreboard.
- Do not call WhaleGrader a Polymarket or Kalshi product. It is independent.
- Do not treat a personalized /catchup visit as a stable citation. With no device cookie, https://whalegrader.com/catchup is the public last 24 hours. Day pages: https://whalegrader.com/days.
- Personalized account pages (https://whalegrader.com/account) are not public data.