{"flags":[{"condition_id":"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x02f2ec44cc5ff85be94d70cf8f30d8f7cde91bcea4ae907a7e1d7d5cced6fb2f:0","id":"trade:0x02f2ec44cc5ff85be94d70cf8f30d8f7cde91bcea4ae907a7e1d7d5cced6fb2f:0","implied":0.07,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.07,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1780092395,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","usd":17179.201900000004,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x366f89649caea042c96ee741b185461ec7faa408a2664ec44469a0061924b537","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x2ffc8cc218c118b8d494aa4dccf3ccdac3c51e710a5d8a47017332a79ca86b97:0","id":"trade:0x2ffc8cc218c118b8d494aa4dccf3ccdac3c51e710a5d8a47017332a79ca86b97:0","implied":0.4297277899,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.4297277899,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1779833925,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?","usd":12960.02719997923,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe65f4f0d48a686bb1a02fba9ead50de04a618dc05f6a03d8dee12b5ee31b46e2:0","id":"trade:0xe65f4f0d48a686bb1a02fba9ead50de04a618dc05f6a03d8dee12b5ee31b46e2:0","implied":0.697120836996642,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.30287916300335804,"result":"called","side":"SELL","status":"called","t":1779716707,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","usd":30287.916300335804,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x0e4a0c937b8934c2475613b6322b3f8edc8dedc24762e01e42b0e6f87424a089","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xf4a906ab0c7d4d0e95a78673d5a54278abd2cf21aed7540a834be48ac483c9b7:0","id":"trade:0xf4a906ab0c7d4d0e95a78673d5a54278abd2cf21aed7540a834be48ac483c9b7:0","implied":0.18000000000000002,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.18000000000000002,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1779351962,"title":"US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?","usd":16764.6834,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xb76a20351910098809807f57bddc66485b1419e2c6f99d47b2c932973204251b:0","id":"trade:0xb76a20351910098809807f57bddc66485b1419e2c6f99d47b2c932973204251b:0","implied":0.7866996917,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.2133003083,"result":"called","side":"SELL","status":"called","t":1778330541,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?","usd":38940.68659308966,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x348cd9adf4f6855f58bd9c6dbf9ff251c4142ef77233a5dc95c65b4b61cd2187","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x8e581198e0de86713940c8409abbba522c00e848e070ba2ea0c4b514a41f420f:0","id":"trade:0x8e581198e0de86713940c8409abbba522c00e848e070ba2ea0c4b514a41f420f:0","implied":0.4842331926,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.4842331926,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1778021750,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?","usd":14244.135800874636,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x50f124411204fabd4d2a4053c52e8631ffc606eea0a1a1b7de0b1a5a02c0ecdb:0","id":"trade:0x50f124411204fabd4d2a4053c52e8631ffc606eea0a1a1b7de0b1a5a02c0ecdb:0","implied":0.2087517257,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.2087517257,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1777821560,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?","usd":32460.46749282957,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x688676fc8eca52735aaffea6131ea1c69c8ecb28aaa2fa1732cbc81d6c643517:0","id":"trade:0x688676fc8eca52735aaffea6131ea1c69c8ecb28aaa2fa1732cbc81d6c643517:0","implied":0.42,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.42,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1777384388,"title":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?","usd":11367.2034,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x8183a221622f2d5d2b46da86c80d55a61f43d35829589e03c1efae9d072638c5","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x5a74b47f8f3c7ded0808ea81914e7cf9dae51ef02f01ba80a3fe41f4d7d9c8bf:0","id":"trade:0x5a74b47f8f3c7ded0808ea81914e7cf9dae51ef02f01ba80a3fe41f4d7d9c8bf:0","implied":0.8288766782,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.8288766782,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1776592618,"title":"Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?","usd":29965.67400178813,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xbd7bb893973f6e2f48edf492230c8510e88f60d9699586921a016502b99d918d:1","id":"trade:0xbd7bb893973f6e2f48edf492230c8510e88f60d9699586921a016502b99d918d:1","implied":0.0010000000000000009,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1775150517,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","usd":83233.52316,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xa156c7a2730ec7a9d275ea3af16a21a95b6edb24e075fbbe07ed4ec1acd14413:1","id":"trade:0xa156c7a2730ec7a9d275ea3af16a21a95b6edb24e075fbbe07ed4ec1acd14413:1","implied":0.83,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.83,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1774652589,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","usd":11916.7748,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x306d10d4a4d51b41910dbc779ca00908bd917c131541c5c42bbbc736258d2d56","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe907beb371cca344189129e55ca39e32472482194fd73e8e2dc3e5b9119a4638:1","id":"trade:0xe907beb371cca344189129e55ca39e32472482194fd73e8e2dc3e5b9119a4638:1","implied":0.82,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.82,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1774631265,"title":"US forces enter Iran by March 31?","usd":56300.609599999996,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x7cb525e831729325d651017f81cbcb6f1adde5011c7b2283babea00b4ae93ae7","excluded_reason":"price_band","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x01cca17a021bd522ea8b6c1a7c8fb597cf4cc81bd238efbe29d9426f08340b5d:1","id":"trade:0x01cca17a021bd522ea8b6c1a7c8fb597cf4cc81bd238efbe29d9426f08340b5d:1","implied":0.007000000000000117,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9929999999999999,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1774631259,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","usd":75737.46048,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x7cb525e831729325d651017f81cbcb6f1adde5011c7b2283babea00b4ae93ae7","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xe13b1bffd3bf02732d6ea7d43ba44268a77f81eafe140f36fe06515ce44b961e:1","id":"trade:0xe13b1bffd3bf02732d6ea7d43ba44268a77f81eafe140f36fe06515ce44b961e:1","implied":0.9494968762,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"No","price":0.9494968762,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1773584641,"title":"Netanyahu out by March 31?","usd":72419.41806352563,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0xd4bbf7f6707c67beb736135ad32a41f6db41f8ae52d3ac4919650de9eeb94ed8","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x75704a241ed1e208f57a913b5a4436fdc084e7e7eca29e77d9defaba7121fb70:0","id":"trade:0x75704a241ed1e208f57a913b5a4436fdc084e7e7eca29e77d9defaba7121fb70:0","implied":0.9679732773,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.9679732773,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1772326129,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","usd":10976.971840306369,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0xd4bbf7f6707c67beb736135ad32a41f6db41f8ae52d3ac4919650de9eeb94ed8","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xa904009441a84f98915fa60c29d76e9f6d3c583d5797d418daeeda2cd9b77851:0","id":"trade:0xa904009441a84f98915fa60c29d76e9f6d3c583d5797d418daeeda2cd9b77851:0","implied":0.9162683765768,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.9162683765768,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1772313121,"title":"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?","usd":31816.576409722933,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x3488f31e6449f9803f99a8b5dd232c7ad883637f1c86e6953305a2ef19c77f20","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x7547de419d3490cfd7bbd65c4189fc0b22bd3c0affdec55465f2c309aec648e9:0","id":"trade:0x7547de419d3490cfd7bbd65c4189fc0b22bd3c0affdec55465f2c309aec648e9:0","implied":0.8200000000000001,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.18,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"excluded","t":1771823838,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","usd":46178.2638,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x3488f31e6449f9803f99a8b5dd232c7ad883637f1c86e6953305a2ef19c77f20","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x58827d85fa29b0878c24312157aec882cfac090db3f456400ac513abec6fcf21:0","id":"trade:0x58827d85fa29b0878c24312157aec882cfac090db3f456400ac513abec6fcf21:0","implied":0.1939874587957185,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.1939874587957185,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1771795848,"title":"US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?","usd":49222.913200211886,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0x43ec78527bd98a0588dd9455685b2cc82f5743140cb3a154603dc03c02b57de5","excluded_reason":"after_close","href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x0e19d4cfb6b2bb029941bc0222145dec2dbafe8ac3537c92d498ee974e431b27:0","id":"trade:0x0e19d4cfb6b2bb029941bc0222145dec2dbafe8ac3537c92d498ee974e431b27:0","implied":0.9692607097,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.9692607097,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"excluded","t":1769822108,"title":"US government shutdown Saturday?","usd":37781.32691157244,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0xabb86b080e9858dcb3f46954010e49b6f539c20036856c7f999395bfd58d01e6","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x2e10179ae0c37757048ce1d915c7bd1f5761afc2b435a9798d5045c25eaa9641:0","id":"trade:0x2e10179ae0c37757048ce1d915c7bd1f5761afc2b435a9798d5045c25eaa9641:0","implied":0.61,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.61,"result":"missed","side":"BUY","status":"missed","t":1768315457,"title":"US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?","usd":13750.8152,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xbfdb0eb768da6462dbb6a7218294c2521e662bda50952d0e3cf5635657d3c06a:0","id":"trade:0xbfdb0eb768da6462dbb6a7218294c2521e662bda50952d0e3cf5635657d3c06a:0","implied":0.1087450901,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.8912549099,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1759868432,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","usd":11744.42244971626,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0xa97f5114eed87b1910307507a37681eaf31d691abf7d838da9fbc6cdd27923e4:0","id":"trade:0xa97f5114eed87b1910307507a37681eaf31d691abf7d838da9fbc6cdd27923e4:0","implied":0.11088136780000002,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.8891186322,"result":"missed","side":"SELL","status":"missed","t":1759864294,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","usd":16004.1353796,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"},{"condition_id":"0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9","excluded_reason":null,"href":"https://whalegrader.com/flag/trade:0x44f26fbd96c321f641661f61add456c2c0bfe279b9705db22afaac68f8b477d7:0","id":"trade:0x44f26fbd96c321f641661f61add456c2c0bfe279b9705db22afaac68f8b477d7:0","implied":0.8087822958,"kind":"whale_trade","outcome":"Yes","price":0.8087822958,"result":"called","side":"BUY","status":"called","t":1757632169,"title":"Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?","usd":25215.729149074923,"venue":"polymarket","wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"}],"record":{"called":0,"edge":-0.5079869941666667,"exp_rate":0.5079869941666667,"expected":1.5239609825,"hit":0.0,"n":3,"se":0.28532889877240747},"wallet":"0xbb8e6477bcb4d0a79449507c607d36fd228fb243"}
